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NATO defence spending likely to increase as space conflicts added to Article 5, says GlobalData


Following the news that NATO leaders have declared that attacks in, to and from space against any member will now trigger the mutual defence agreement and obligate allied members to respond; Madeline Wild, Associate Defence Analyst at GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company, comments: “While military expansion into space has been imagined since the first commercial exploration during the Cold War, the decision to add space conflicts to Article 5 marks a significant shift in the perceived threat of military space activities. The need to respond to any space-related conflicts means NATO members are likely to increase spending on technologies capable of monitoring and launching both offensive and defensive attacks.


“According to GlobalData, the military satellite market is currently worth US$9.4 billion, with the US and the EU accounting for over 47 percent. The market, forecasted to be worth US$13.7 billion by 2031, is expected to grow further to accommodate this announcement.


“In order for states to be capable of engaging in space-based warfare, there will also need to be investment in a number of ground-based technologies such as launch vehicles and sites, as well as numerous up-and-coming technologies. Areas that may see enhanced investment from NATO members as a result of Monday’s decision include anti-satellite weapons, artificial intelligence, smallsats, and space-based quantum computing.


“Industries should also expect an investment response from those outside the NATO community. Countries that aren’t aligned with the organization are likely to boost their investment trajectories as the threat of space conflicts, and the expected response to such threats, are formalized into the NATO charter.”

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